Please note that this item is copyright Richard Alexander. It may be freely copied for non-commercial use, provided this copyright notice remains attached and the text is not altered without my permission. Commercial use of the text is forbidden without agreement as to payment. (Normally I will accept the usual wordage rate.)

Heinberg, Richard "The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies". New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, Canada, 2003. Pbk, xii, 274pp. Graphs, bibliography, notes, index. ISBN 0-86571-482-7 $17.95

This book will not be popular in many circles, not least those who blithely assume that not only is industrial society is a benefit to humanity, but that it can be sustained indefinitely and spread to the ever expanding population of the world. Such people are in for a nasty shock if this book is to be believed and without pre-empting the review it should be.

In a way what Heinberg has achieved with this book is an update to the 1960/70's pioneering works on ecology. The basics of the science of ecology have not changed in the intervening years and neither has the final prognosis. What Heinberg has done is to update the figures and spelt out, albeit in an North American context, what is going to happen to modern industrial society.

The major constraints, as they have always been, are physical. However one changes the details of human society, the economy, the social forms, even whether there is a state or not, the same physical limits apply. And, put simply, the fact is that we live on a finite planet with finite non-renewable resources and we have built our current civilisation on the ruthless exploitation of those resources (not to mention the exploitation of the global flora, fauna and less fortunate humans.) The chief problem is, if you need reminding, oil. We have reserves of coal which, if carefully managed could last a couple of centuries; and there is the contribution that renewable sources of energy could make to our needs. But the main problem is that oil reserves (no matter how well you manage them) are finite and at present the industrial nations of the world (and the would-be industrial nations) are almost totally dependent on it for transportation and for a major percentage of energy needs. Oil (and natural gas) is also a main resource used for fertilisers, pesticides, and other industrial agricultural needs. In short without it modern agriculture will collapse, our ability to grow things will diminish along with our ability to move surpluses to where they are most needed.

In blunt terms, modern industrial society is headed for the buffers. Once you accept this the main questions that arise are: what can be done to slow down the impact, and what survival strategies can people make (individually and collectively) for long-term survival. On a personal level, given human population has overshot the sustainable carrying capacity of the planet, how do you make sure you're one of the 20 - 25% who might still be around to make the new society.

The first chapter of the book will give the reader the basic grounding in ecological science, whilst the second is an all-too-brief historical summary of how we got into the mess in the first place. Even if the reader feels confident this is all old hat, I'd recommend this as a refresher course. This is followed by a discussion on the nature of the problem as it pertains to oil resources and includes a detailed rebuttal of the critics of the oil resource problem. One can only assume these people are living on a different planet. The sad fact is, no matter how resourceful people become or which economic theory or model you prefer, the simple fact is the usable reserves of oil are finite and we are currently using them at an ever-increasing rate. This obviously cannot continue indefinitely.

Heinberg then gives a brief run down of the alternative energy resources and strategies; and what contribution they might make to our total energy requirements. Here the important fact to grasp is that none, singly or in aggregate, can replace the amount of oil currently being used. In future we are going to have make do with less fuel, and the sooner we start developing the alternative, renewable sources, the less painful the transition will be. And just how painful that is going to be is outlined in the fifth chapter. Here Heinberg outlines the implications in a variety of contexts, including the overall economy, transportation, heating and cooking, public health, the environment, information storage and so forth. It does not make for comfortable reading.

And neither does the final chapter with his suggestions on managing the collapse, although those of an anarchist persuasion will be find much that is compatible with some forms of anarchism here. What Heinberg advocates is pretty much what many anarchists have put forward: local self-sufficiency, community oriented, low (and equal) consumption, local transport, handcrafts and sustainable organic agriculture. In technological terms, pretty much back to the 1600's in Europe, but sadly we won't be able to have so many people as we have now. Heinberg estimates that 2 billion humans is the most the planet can manage. However he suggests that if all couples only have 1.5 children on average for the next 100 years we could arrive at this figure, without state intervention. Sadly one suspects that along the way many we be killed through breakdowns in public health, starvation, civil and international resource wars, disease and so forth. (I'm not advocating that, merely saying that's what I think is most likely.)

The book is well researched, clearly argued, well presented and documented. It is, of course a tad ironic that a book that foresees the end of the Internet and electronic storage media itself references so many on-line sources of information. (Download and print them out whilst you can!) As far as I can see, the basic argument is sound, the only quibbles relate to exactly when we reach the "peak" of oil production. Heinberg quotes figures suggesting that  that global oil production peak is most likely to fall within the window of 2006 to 2015 (see p. 119). (More recently in  an e-mail in response to my original review he states: These days (18 months after the book was finished and off to the printer) I'm more likely to say 2006 to 2010.") 

After that it's downhill all the way. That remains to be seen, but it matters little if it's 5 or 10 years either way. The time when this issue should have been properly addressed was when people first became aware of it in the 1970's. Instead a combination of political and economic forces has swept the issue under an increasingly threadbare carpet.

Quite correctly, in my opinion, Heinberg puts forward a wide range of ways in which individuals and (in particular) communities can begin the move to a post-industrial society. The problem is that most of them are really only suited to rural communities (and proper "communitites" at that, not just whoever lives in the countryside.) How people in the big cities are going to cope begins to look increasingly grim. One small factor I think Heinberg should have emphasised: we need to start breeding more working horses (i.e. horses capable of more work than just providing pubescent girls with some fun at weekends,) though we also need to remember that one reason people welcomed the coming of the car was, it meant an end to the mountains of horse manure in the town and city. I suspect people had better start getting use to it - better still there's going to be an urgent use for it when the inorganic fertilizers run out!

If you hadn't given the subject much thought this book should provide your wake-up call. And even if the theme is already  understood, most readers will gain additional insight by reading this book.

Thoroughly recommended

8/10

Richard Alexander