This chapter describes the air and missile threats facing U.S. military forces. This evolving threat will take on new, stressing characteristics during the 21st century. Adversaries will closely observe emerging U.S. capabilities in an effort to identify and exploit weaknesses using asymmetric approaches. An asymmetric approach seeks to negate U.S. capabilities by simple counters and avoids a direct match with U.S. strengths. Fundamental capabilities that 21st-century adversaries may pursue to counter U.S. strengths include weapons of mass destruction (WMD); unmanned reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition (RSTA) systems; precision strike weapons; large numbers of inexpensive rockets; land attack cruise missiles (LACM); and information warfare. Some states will rely on asymmetric capabilities as a substitute for, or complement to, large conventional forces. This trend started in the late 1980s, and is continuing today. The proliferation of low-cost, high-payoff, unmanned systems, theater missiles (TM), unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and large caliber rockets (LCR) is a recent trend.
2-3. Integration of global positioning system (GPS) and terminal guidance are the current focus of improving accuracy. Solid fuels and multiple staging will increase TBM payloads and ranges. Improved TBMs may target point targets. Figure 2-1 illustrates the characteristics of TBMs.
Figure 2-1. Characteristics of TBMs
2-5. Rockets are widely proliferated, and their production and sale is increasing. The high volume of fire and multiple warhead capabilities of LCR make them a very appealing weapon system for threat nations. In the future, threat nations may deploy passive infrared (IR) and radio frequency (RF) warheads with these missile systems, improving their use against armor systems, command and control nodes, and battlefield radar. Figure 2-2 illustrates LCR characteristics.
Figure 2-2. Characteristics of Large Caliber Rockets
2-7. Increased use of air-breathing turbojet and turbofan engines permits subsonic speeds, providing longer ranges and flight altitudes as low as 20 meters above ground level (AGL). Sophisticated guidance systems, such as GPS, the inertial navigation system (INS), and terrain contour matching (TERCOM) contribute to overall accuracy and allow programming of unpredictable flight paths to optimize surprise. A terminal guidance seeker increases accuracy up to less than 10 meters. A wide array of conventional warheads, to include submunitions, allows targeting of both soft and hard targets. NBC weapons pose the most serious threat, but currently very few countries have CM with nuclear warheads. However, the development of a chemical or biological warhead is not difficult. The May 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review report noted that the use of NBC weapons is a likely condition of future warfare, and that these weapons could be delivered by several means including CM. The success of cruise missiles in Operation Desert Storm led to increased interest in these systems and spurred current worldwide developments. Threat experts foresee an increase in the number of LACM within the next ten years, as well as extended ranges, improved accuracy, reduced RCS, and increased lethality. The addition of smart submunitions will allow the engagement of armored units on the move in the near future. Countermeasures and evasive maneuvers are also potential capabilities. Figure 2-3 illustrates cruise missile characteristics.
Figure 2-3. Characteristics of Cruise Missiles
2-9. Missiles that employ anti-radiation homing systems are referred to as anti-radiation missiles (ARMs); they represent the greatest threat to air and missile defense, artillery (counter-battery), aviation, and intelligence radar. Most ARMs have ranges of over 100 kilometers. An aircraft firing an ARM will usually launch from outside the lethal envelope of the air defense system being attacked. Laser-guided systems place the attacking aircraft in harm's way because of their short range, generally less than 10 kilometers. Electro-optical or video-guided systems and ARMs offer the greatest standoff range and aircraft survivability factor. Some electronic-optical systems have ranges in excess of 100 kilometers.
2-10. ASM, like CM, are becoming smarter and more versatile, reliable, accurate, and lethal. New capabilities may include a lock-on-after-launch capability or a loitering capability to attack enemy radar (for ARM variants) and may use dual mode seekers for increased reliability and combat capability. Figure 2-4 illustrates ASM characteristics.
Figure 2-4. Characteristics of Air-to-Surface Missiles
2-12. UAV payloads consist of daylight television and IR video cameras, and film cameras (for reconnaissance missions). Other major payload categories include electronic warfare (EW), electronic intelligence, radar, and attack warheads. Several nations are developing and fielding anti-radiation homing UAV with the primary mission of attacking battlefield RF emitters (radar, communications). These platforms have a variety of launch options and are usually fire-and-forget systems. Other attack UAV systems employ terminal guidance to kill tanks or fighting vehicles.
2-13. Current projections indicate more than 50 developer countries and 75 user countries of UAVs by 2005. In addition to information gathering (still the dominant function), UAV roles will include electronic combat, decoy, ground attack, and suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD). A significant new capability involves the direct linkage of a reconnaissance UAV to an artillery unit’s fire direction center. This linkage provides near real time information to ground commanders, followed by immediate fire and damage assessment. UAVs are also good candidates for stealth technology and spin-off technologies from CM developmental programs. Figure 2-5 illustrates UAV characteristics.
Figure 2-5. Characteristics of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
Figure 2-6. Characteristics of Helicopters
2-17. Technological advances in low observable materials, aerodynamics, power plants, armaments, and aircraft systems has resulted in highly capable, but very expensive, aircraft. With the cost of a new fighter aircraft approaching $50 million, aircraft inventories will probably steadily decline. There will be a move toward multirole capabilities, rather than dedicated, single-mission platforms, and an increased use of precision, standoff munitions. Aircraft survivability continues to improve with incorporation of advanced EW suites, advanced countermeasures development, and reductions in radar and IR signatures. The upgrading of current aircraft capabilities will continue, rather than one-for-one replacements with next-generation aircraft. Figure 2-7 illustrates fixed-wing aircraft characteristics.
Figure 2-7. Characteristics of Fixed-wing Aircraft
2-20. Russia and China currently possess nuclear weapons and there are many other nations of nuclear proliferation concern. As many as 26 countries are developing, or are suspected of developing, chemical weapons.
2-21. Principal doctrine for chemical weapons use by threat nations is to maintain the momentum of an attack and to degrade their enemy’s capability to fight. Chemical and biological agents can be delivered to target areas virtually anywhere in a theater of operation. Delivery means include ballistic missiles, aircraft bombs or rockets and spray, multiple rocket launchers, mortars, conventional artillery, CM, UAV, and Special Forces.
2-22. Nuclear weapons cause casualties and materiel damage through the effects of blast, thermal radiation, and nuclear radiation. Biological agents, consisting of pathogens and toxins, produce diseases in soldiers, thereby reducing their ability to accomplish their missions. These agents are primarily an inhalation threat. Threat forces will employ chemical agents to expose soldiers to a respiratory and percutaneous agent threat by attacking with non-persistent and persistent agents. Persistent agents will also be used to contaminate personal clothing, equipment, and materiel. This will mandate the diversion of resources to decontaminate personnel and equipment.
2-23. Insurgent or terrorist groups could manufacture or acquire chemical and biological weapons to attack AD forces and other high-payoff targets. Small laboratories, such as school labs, or the drug labs used for processing cocaine, can produce some chemical and biological warfare agents.
2-24. Threat nations will employ NBC weapons to incapacitate or kill personnel. In addition, unit effectiveness decreases while operating in a contaminated environment due to fear, the requirement to wear protective clothing, and the need to decontaminate personnel and equipment. ADA units throughout the theater will be high-priority targets for NBC attack. The air defense commander and staff must, therefore, train their soldiers and units for operations in an NBC environment.
Figure 2-8. Trends in Weapons Proliferation